A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine highlights a growing trend where the percentage of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for diabetic patients are declining. The researchers warned that this shift could lead to potential shortages of these important treatments.
Originally designed to treat type 2 diabetes, GLP-1 drugs like Wegovy and Ozempic function by mimicking a hormone that regulates blood sugar levels and curbs appetite. In 2021, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) expanded the approval of Wegovy for weight loss, further widening the use of these medications.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in meeting the surging demand for GLP-1 drugs. Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined medical records from 45 million Americans who visited healthcare providers between 2011 and 2023. Their findings revealed a decrease in the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while the share of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, one of the study’s co-authors, remarked that this indicates healthcare providers are increasingly recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment. However, she expressed concern about the accessibility of these medications for diabetes patients amid rising demand.
The data utilized in the study came from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not fully represent national trends. Over the past few years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their weight loss effects, enabling users to shed up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of these medications have propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, this high demand has also made it difficult for some patients to fill their prescriptions, prompting both companies to invest billions to enhance production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected increase in adoption to about 31.5 million people in the U.S. by 2035, representing approximately 9% of the population.