A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend of people without diabetes receiving prescriptions for GLP-1 drugs, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. The researchers express concerns that this trend may lead to potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and appetite, were initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, since the FDA approved Wegovy for weight loss in 2021, demand for these medications has surged. As a result, manufacturers Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in producing sufficient quantities to meet the increasing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicate that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. In contrast, the share of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, noted that this shift signifies a change in healthcare providers’ perceptions of these medications for obesity treatment, which they view as a significant public health issue. However, Yeo also emphasized the need to ensure that patients with diabetes continue to have access to these essential treatments.
The study employed data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent national trends. GLP-1 drugs are increasingly favored for their appetite suppression properties, showing effectiveness in helping users lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of these drugs have positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk among the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies. However, the heightened demand has made it difficult for some patients to fill their prescriptions. In response, both companies have invested billions to enhance production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030. The investment bank also projects that the adoption rate of these medications could reach approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S., or about 9% of the population, by 2035.