A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine indicates a significant increase in the number of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 drugs, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. Researchers highlighted concerns about the potential for shortages of these medications due to this trend.
GLP-1 drugs, originally approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, function by mimicking a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and curbs appetite. The landscape changed in 2021 when the FDA approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment specifically for weight loss.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in meeting the heightened demand for GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
The analysis, conducted by researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions, examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor’s visit from 2011 to 2023. Findings revealed that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Concurrently, the share of new GLP-1 users without diabetes grew from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that this trend reflects a broader recognition of the medications’ benefits for treating obesity, signaling an important shift in public health. However, it also poses risks regarding the availability of these treatments for diabetes patients who need them.
The data for this study was sourced from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not represent the entire national landscape.
In recent years, demand for GLP-1 drugs has surged due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight. This growing popularity has positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk among the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical firms, although it has also led to difficulties for some patients in filling their prescriptions. Both companies have committed significant investments to increase their production capacities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030. Additionally, they estimate that approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S., or about 9% of the population, will adopt these medications by 2035.