A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a rising trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs for individuals without diabetes, while prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This shift has raised concerns about potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that aids in regulating blood sugar and reducing appetite, were initially approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA also approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 drug, for weight loss. Since then, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in meeting the increasing demand for these medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicated that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while the proportion of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, one of the study’s co-authors, expressed that the data indicates a growing recognition among healthcare providers of the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment. However, this trend could lead to medication shortages, potentially limiting access for diabetes patients.
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent national trends. GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The surge in sales of these drugs has significantly boosted the market values of Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, making them among the most valuable pharmaceutical companies worldwide. Nonetheless, the high demand has led to difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. In response, both companies have committed billions to expand production.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of about 31.5 million users in the U.S. — approximately 9% of the population — by 2035.