The number of non-diabetic individuals prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining, according to a recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine.
Researchers express concern that this shift could lead to potential shortages of these treatments. GLP-1 drugs function by mimicking a hormone that manages blood sugar levels and decreases appetite. Initially approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded the use of the GLP-1 drug Wegovy for weight management in 2021.
Since that time, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in producing sufficient quantities of GLP-1 medications, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to meet the increasing demand.
A team from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited physicians between 2011 and 2023. Their findings show that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. Concurrently, the percentage of new GLP-1 users without type 2 diabetes grew from 10% to 25%.
“This data indicates that healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, representing a significant public health change,” remarked Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, this trend raises concerns regarding potential medication shortages and the necessity for patients with diabetes to maintain access to these therapies.”
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not fully represent the national population.
GLP-1 medications have increasingly gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, with users experiencing weight loss of up to 26%. Consequently, soaring sales of these drugs have propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies worldwide. Nonetheless, the high demand has resulted in difficulties for certain patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies are investing billions to enhance their production capacities.
Analysts from Morgan Stanley predict that the global market for these medications could reach $105 billion by 2030. They also foresee the number of users in the U.S. potentially rising to about 31.5 million by 2035, representing roughly 9% of the population.