A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend among individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 drugs, while new prescriptions for people with diabetes are declining. This shift raises concerns about potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and reduces appetite, were initially intended for treating type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss. Consequently, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in producing enough GLP-1 medications, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to meet increasing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans who visited doctors between 2011 and 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users diagnosed with type 2 diabetes decreased from almost 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. Meanwhile, the share of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, marking a significant public health shift. However, this trend highlights the need to ensure patients with diabetes continue to have access to these essential treatments.
The study utilized data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent national trends. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, leading to weight loss of up to 26%.
The surge in sales for these drugs has made Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the soaring demand has created challenges for some patients to fill their prescriptions. Both companies have invested billions to increase production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million individuals in the U.S. adopting these medications by 2035, accounting for about 9% of the population.