A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a concerning trend: the proportion of people without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 drugs is increasing, while new prescriptions for diabetic patients are declining.
This trend raises alarms about potential shortages of these medications. GLP-1 drugs, which imitate a hormone that regulates blood sugar and suppresses appetite, were originally approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA authorized Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are currently struggling to keep up with the rising demand for GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions studied medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor from 2011 to 2023. Their findings show that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. In contrast, the share of new GLP-1 users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, indicating a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the necessity to ensure that patients with diabetes still have access to these treatments.”
The data for the study originated from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not reflect the national picture.
GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their ability to suppress appetite and help users lose up to 26% of their body weight in recent years. The soaring sales of these drugs have positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk as two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally, but this high demand has led to challenges for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies have invested significantly to boost production.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for these medications could reach $105 billion by 2030, estimating that approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S.—about 9% of the population—will adopt these drugs by 2035.