A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the number of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This trend raises concerns about potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and curbs appetite, were initially approved for type 2 diabetes treatment. In 2021, the FDA expanded the use of the GLP-1 drug Wegovy for weight loss purposes. Since then, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have struggled to produce enough of these medications— which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic— to meet the escalating demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, among others, analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a healthcare provider between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicate that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to just over 70% from 2019 to 2023. Conversely, the percentage of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers recognize the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, marking a significant public health shift,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the importance of ensuring that diabetes patients still have access to these essential treatments.”
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent the national landscape.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their effectiveness in suppressing appetite and helping users lose up to 26% of their body weight. The soaring sales of these medications have positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk as two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the spike in demand has created difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have invested billions to enhance their production capacities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million people in the U.S.—approximately 9% of the population—expected to adopt these medications by 2035.