A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a significant rise in the number of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. The authors of the study express concern that this trend may lead to potential shortages of these important treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and suppresses appetite, were originally approved for managing type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA also approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss. Since then, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in producing adequate supplies of GLP-1 medications, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to satisfy the increasing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. The analysis showed that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the proportion of new users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, noted that this trend indicates healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, representing a major shift in public health. However, the rising use among non-diabetic patients raises concerns about ensuring access to these medications for those with diabetes.
The findings were based on data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, but it is noted that this data may not fully represent the national population. In recent years, GLP-1 medications have gained popularity for their weight loss effects, with users able to lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The surge in sales of these drugs has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. Despite the high demand, some patients have experienced difficulties in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies have invested heavily to increase production of these essential medications.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million people in the U.S. using these drugs by 2035, equating to about 9% of the population.