A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, while prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This shift has raised concerns regarding potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs mimic a hormone that helps manage blood sugar and reduce appetite. Initially approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, received FDA approval for weight loss in 2021. Since then, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in meeting the increasing demand for GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited doctors between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicate that the percentage of new GLP-1 users diagnosed with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the proportion of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Co-first author of the study, Yee Hui Yeo, highlighted that this trend reflects a significant public health shift, as more healthcare providers recognize the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment. However, Yeo cautioned that this also poses a risk of medication shortages, emphasizing the importance of ensuring ongoing access for diabetes patients.
The research utilized data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not be fully representative of the national population. GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing properties, with studies showing users can lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The dramatic increase in GLP-1 drug sales has positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk among the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies. Despite this success, high demand has made it challenging for some patients to fill their prescriptions. Both companies are investing billions to enhance their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could soar to $105 billion by 2030, projecting that approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S. will use these medications by 2035, accounting for around 9% of the population.