A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the number of individuals without diabetes who are being prescribed GLP-1 drugs is on the rise, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. Researchers express concern that this trend could lead to potential shortages of these important treatments.
GLP-1 medications mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and suppress appetite. Initially approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded the use of Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight management in 2021.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are currently facing challenges in producing enough GLP-1 drugs—medications including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic—to keep up with increasing demand.
The research team from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited doctors from 2011 to 2023. They discovered that from 2019 to 2023, the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70%. Conversely, the percentage of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, indicating a significant shift in public health,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study. “However, this trend raises concerns about possible medication shortages and the necessity for patients with diabetes to maintain access to these treatments.”
The researchers used data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, though it may not be representative of the nation as a whole.
GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The surge in sales has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies worldwide. However, high demand has complicated access for certain patients. Both companies have invested billions to increase their production capacities.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley project that the global market for these drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million people in the U.S.—about 9% of the population—expected to adopt these medications by 2035.