A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a significant rise in the number of people without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 drugs, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are on the decline. This trend raises concerns about potential shortages of these treatments, according to the study’s authors.
GLP-1 drugs, initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes, function by mimicking a hormone that regulates blood sugar levels and curbs appetite. The situation changed in 2021 when the FDA approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss purposes. As a result, pharmaceutical companies Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are now struggling to meet the escalating demand for these medications.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, among other institutions, examined medical records from 45 million Americans who visited healthcare providers between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicate that the percentage of new GLP-1 users diagnosed with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the share of new GLP-1 users without diabetes surged from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, the co-first author of the study, noted, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which marks a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about medication shortages and the need to ensure that patients with diabetes still have access to these treatments.”
The research utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, although it may not represent the national population accurately. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, reportedly helping users lose up to 26% of their total body weight.
The surge in sales of these medications has catapulted Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the forefront as some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the heightened demand has led to challenges for patients trying to fill prescriptions. Both companies have invested billions to enhance their production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S. by 2035, representing about 9% of the population.