A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a notable increase in the number of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This trend raises concerns about potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs, originally approved for treating type 2 diabetes, function by mimicking a hormone that controls blood sugar and curbs appetite. In 2021, the FDA expanded the use of the GLP-1 drug Wegovy for weight loss, leading to a surge in demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions reviewed medical records from 45 million Americans between 2011 and 2023. Findings indicate that the percentage of new GLP-1 users diagnosed with type 2 diabetes has decreased from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023, while the proportion of new users without diabetes has risen from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, remarked that this shift suggests healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these drugs for obesity treatment, indicating a significant public health shift. However, he also expressed concerns regarding the potential for medication shortages and ensuring continued access for diabetes patients.
Despite the study reportedly analyzing data from the healthcare software firm TriNetX, which may not fully represent national trends, it highlights the growing popularity of GLP-1 medications for their appetite-suppressing effects, with users losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The dramatic sales increase has elevated Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become some of the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies. However, the high demand has resulted in difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies are investing significantly to boost production.
Morgan Stanley analysts project the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of around 31.5 million individuals in the U.S. by 2035, comprising about 9% of the population.