A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a significant increase in the number of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications, alongside a decrease in new prescriptions for diabetic patients. Researchers expressed concerns that this trend may lead to potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and suppresses appetite, were originally approved for type 2 diabetes management. However, in 2021, the FDA also approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in producing sufficient quantities of GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to meet the increasing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited healthcare providers between 2011 and 2023. The analysis indicated that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes declined from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023, while the percentage of new GLP-1 users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, marking a significant public health shift,” said Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. However, concerns regarding medication shortages and continued access for diabetes patients were also raised.
The study utilized data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not provide a fully representative national picture.
In recent years, GLP-1 medications have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with studies showing that users can lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The surge in demand for these drugs has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally, though it has made it challenging for some patients to fill their prescriptions. Both companies have allocated billions to increase their production capacities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of around 31.5 million people in the U.S., representing approximately 9% of the population, by 2035.