A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine indicates that the number of individuals without diabetes receiving prescriptions for GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for diabetic patients are on the decline. This trend raises alarms over potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 medications, which mimic a hormone that manages blood sugar levels and suppresses appetite, were first approved for type 2 diabetes management. However, after the FDA’s endorsement of Wegovy for weight loss in 2021, the usage of these drugs has expanded beyond diabetes treatments.
Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, two leading manufacturers of GLP-1 drugs—which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic—are struggling to meet this surging demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center along with other organizations scrutinized the medical profiles of 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor visit from 2011 to 2023. Their findings reveal that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Concurrently, the percentage of new GLP-1 users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests a significant public health shift, with more healthcare providers recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, it raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the importance of continued access for patients with diabetes.”
The study’s data was sourced from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, though it may not fully represent national trends.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their weight-loss benefits, enabling users to shed up to 26% of their body weight. The surge in sales has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the forefront of the pharmaceutical industry, but it has simultaneously led to challenges for patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies are investing billions to increase their production capacity for these medications.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million users in the U.S.—approximately 9% of the population—by 2035.