A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a rising trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, while prescriptions for diabetes patients are declining. The study highlights concerns about potential shortages of these diabetes treatments as their popularity grows for weight loss.
GLP-1 medications, initially approved for type 2 diabetes management, function by mimicking a hormone that controls blood sugar levels and appetite. Their use expanded when the FDA approved Wegovy for weight loss in 2021. Consequently, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are struggling to meet the increasing demand for GLP-1 drugs, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans from 2011 to 2023. They found that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023, while those without diabetes surged from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are seeing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which is a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to ensure that patients with diabetes still have access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not represent the entire national population.
In recent years, the appetite-suppressing effects of GLP-1 drugs have gained traction, with users experiencing a potential weight loss of up to 26% of their body weight. This surge in sales has positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk among the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally, but the high demand has led to difficulties for some patients in accessing their prescriptions. Both companies have committed billions to increase production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030, and they foresee adoption increasing to about 31.5 million users in the U.S., which represents roughly 9% of the population, by 2035.