The number of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 drugs is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining, according to a recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine.
Researchers have expressed concerns about potential shortages of these treatments due to this emerging trend. GLP-1 drugs are designed to mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar levels and reduces appetite. Initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded the use of GLP-1 treatment Wegovy for weight loss in 2021.
Consequently, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, leading manufacturers of GLP-1 medications—including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic—are struggling to keep pace with the increasing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and cooperating institutions reviewed medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. The findings revealed that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes fell from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. Conversely, the share of new GLP-1 users without type 2 diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
“Our data indicates that healthcare providers are recognizing the advantages of these medications for obesity treatment, marking a significant public health change,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, the study’s co-first author. “However, this trend also raises alarms regarding possible medication shortages and the importance of ensuring continued access for diabetes patients to these treatments.”
The study relied on data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not represent the entire national population.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their weight-loss effects, reportedly helping users shed up to 26% of their body weight.
Substantial sales growth of these medications has catapulted Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies. Nonetheless, the soaring demand has led to difficulties for some patients in fulfilling their prescriptions. Both companies have invested billions to increase their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for these drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030. They further estimate that by 2035, about 31.5 million people in the U.S.—approximately 9% of the population—will utilize these medications.