A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the number of individuals without diabetes receiving prescriptions for GLP-1 drugs is increasing, while prescriptions for those with diabetes are decreasing. The study raises concerns about a potential shortage of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and suppress appetite. Initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded its approval in 2021 to include Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment for weight loss.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are currently facing challenges in producing sufficient GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to meet the growing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined medical records from 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor visit between 2011 and 2023. They discovered that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023, while the share of new GLP-1 users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, stated, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, indicating a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to ensure that patients with diabetes continue to have access to these treatments.”
The study was based on data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not be fully representative of the national population.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, helping users lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The surge in sales of these medications has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become some of the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies. However, the high demand has made it challenging for some patients to obtain their prescriptions. Both companies have invested billions to increase their production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of around 31.5 million people in the U.S. by 2035, which would represent about 9% of the population.