Alex de Minaur’s hopes of locking up a top-eight seed at the US Open took a blow after a surprise second-round exit at the Cincinnati Masters, where world No.73 Reilly Opelka defeated the Australian 7-6(6), 6-4.
De Minaur had arrived in North America in strong form — claiming his 10th ATP title in Washington and reaching the quarter-finals in Toronto last week — but was unable to convert that momentum in Cincinnati. The defeat was notable given de Minaur’s 5-0 head-to-head advantage over Opelka prior to the match.
Because de Minaur skipped last year’s Cincinnati due to a hip injury sustained at Wimbledon, this week presented a rare opportunity to add points without having any to defend. Losing in the second round denies him those potential gains and leaves him vulnerable to slipping out of the top eight before the US Open seedings are finalised.
What de Minaur’s loss means for the seedings
– For de Minaur to be displaced from a projected top-eight US Open seed, two scenarios are specified: Karen Khachanov would need to reach at least the Cincinnati final, and Holger Rune would need to win the tournament.
– Khachanov, who reached the Toronto final last week, has momentum but would need another deep run in Cincinnati to overtake de Minaur. Rune, defending 400 points from last year’s Cincinnati semi-final, would need to take the title to move ahead.
Cincinnati points breakdown
– First round: 10 points
– Second round: 30 points (players with byes receive 10)
– Third round: 50 points
– Round of 16: 100 points
– Quarter-finalists: 200 points
– Semi-finalists: 400 points
– Runner-up: 650 points
– Champion: 1,000 points
Key dates
– ATP live rankings snapshot referenced: August 12, 2025.
– Top 32 seeds for the men’s and women’s US Open draws will be released on August 18.
– The US Open main draw begins August 25.
Additional comments and context
– The chance that de Minaur will actually lose a top-eight spot remains slim but real; it requires unusually deep runs from specific rivals this week. Given his recent Washington title and Toronto quarter-final, de Minaur’s overall form is strong and suggests he remains a likely top-eight seed heading into Flushing Meadows.
– From a tactical perspective, the Cincinnati loss underlines how matchups and big servers like Opelka can disrupt form quickly, even against players with favorable head-to-head records. De Minaur’s quick recovery and preparation over the next two weeks will be important for his US Open prospects.
– Fans and followers should watch the live rankings and the remainder of Cincinnati closely — the final week of Masters events often produces last-minute shifts ahead of Grand Slam seedings.
Brief summary
Alex de Minaur was upset by Reilly Opelka in Cincinnati, missing an opportunity to add ranking points in a tournament he didn’t have to defend. That loss slightly increases the possibility, though it’s still unlikely, that he could drop out of the projected top-eight US Open seeds if specific rivals make very deep runs. De Minaur’s recent titles and form, however, mean he remains well-placed entering the final fortnight before the US Open.