Betting on the Daytona 500 presents unique challenges that have evolved over recent seasons. With its unpredictable nature, NASCAR’s premier event has also transformed into what many would describe as a gamble. As William Byron seeks his third consecutive Daytona 500 title, it’s noteworthy that his previous victories have come without him leading for significant portions of the race.
In the 2024 Daytona 500, Byron took the lead for the first time during a late restart and managed to hold on for the final four laps—his only laps led that day. In contrast, during the previous year’s race, Byron only led for 10 laps and made a dramatic last-lap surge from seventh to first largely due to an accident involving the leaders.
The last five winners of the Daytona 500 have showcased a pattern of chaotic finishes. Denny Hamlin, who led 79 laps in his 2020 victory, remains the only one of the recent champions to lead more than 21 laps in a race, while Austin Cindric’s 2022 victory was marked by him leading just 21 laps. This trend underscores the reality that success at Daytona often requires being in the right place at the right time—where drivers can lead a race for many laps yet still end up facing disappointment during the final moments.
Consequently, for those looking to place bets for the February 15 race, a diversified betting strategy is advised. Rather than concentrating funds on a select few drivers, experts recommend making smaller bets across a broader range of contenders, including some longer shots.
Among the favorites is Ryan Blaney, with odds at +1000. He has proven to be a strong performer at Daytona, with two summer race wins and a solid track record, boasting nine top-10 finishes in 21 starts—highlighting the difficulty of predicting outcomes in such an unpredictable event. Joey Logano, another contender at +1100, is likely to be competitive as he has led laps in his last 14 Daytona appearances, although his last win came in 2015.
William Byron is also a key figure to watch at +1200, as he continues to display skill at navigating this challenging race. Austin Cindric, with odds at +1400, can’t be overlooked either; he carries the best average finish of his Team Penske teammates.
Mid-tier value can be found in Denny Hamlin, whose odds stand at +1600. Despite his disappointing recent performances at Daytona, his pedigree as a three-time champion suggests he might bounce back. Brad Keselowski, also at +1600, is on the road to recovery from a leg injury, aiming to make an impact this season. Bubba Wallace has emerged as a promising candidate with long odds of +2200, showcasing the best average finish of active drivers at Daytona.
For those willing to take risks on long shots, Josh Berry at +3500 and Erik Jones at +4000 present intriguing options. Berry, driving for Wood Brothers Racing, has the backing of a solid technical alliance with Team Penske. Meanwhile, Jones, a previous winner at Daytona, brings a history of consistency with top-20 finishes in all of his last five appearances.
In conclusion, the unpredictability of the Daytona 500 makes it a thrilling event both on and off the track. As seasoned drivers and newcomers alike aim for the coveted title, fans and bettors are in for a dramatic race filled with potential surprises.