Sam Darnold Needs Improvement Ahead of 2024 Season
The fundamental role of a quarterback is to successfully complete passes, a skill where Sam Darnold has struggled throughout his career. Over six seasons and 66 games, Darnold has never achieved a completion rate of 62%—not even in his rookie year in 2018, nor in recent seasons. His career average stands at 59.7%, ranking him 47th out of 48 quarterbacks over the past decade.
In stark contrast, Kirk Cousins, the quarterback Darnold is slated to replace, boasts a 67.4% completion rate, placing him fourth among the same group of quarterbacks. In Darnold’s last two seasons, he dropped back to pass 210 times, recording a completion rate of just 59.1%, which is the fifth worst among 52 qualifying quarterbacks.
The low completion rates are concerning, particularly because only 3.2% of his incompletions can be attributed to receiver errors, the second-lowest rate among the same group. Under pressure, Darnold has fared poorly, completing only 46% of his passes and averaging a mere 6.0 yards per attempt, significantly worse than Cousins.
Additionally, when operating in Kevin O’Connell’s preferred personnel group (11 personnel), Darnold has been pressured 38% of the time on early downs, ranking him 58th out of 62 qualifying quarterbacks in the last three years. O’Connell frequently employs play action, and Darnold’s numbers in this area are concerning as well. Among 62 quarterbacks, he ranks low in yards per attempt, expected points added per play, completion rate, and success rate when using play action.
Examining Cousins’ connection with top receiver Justin Jefferson reveals stark contrasts. Cousins utilized efficient routes such as out, go, and crossing routes. In comparison, Darnold’s performance on go routes has been particularly poor, ranking 45th in accuracy and 55th in expected points added. His performance on crossing routes is equally lackluster, showing low success rates and poor accuracy.
While Darnold shows some promise with out routes, ranking 36th in accuracy, his average air yards per attempt do not match Cousins’ efficiency with Jefferson. If Darnold cannot enhance his performance in 11 personnel, play-action passing, and his accuracy on critical routes, the Vikings will likely need to rely heavily on their run game and defense in the upcoming 2024 season.