Dak Prescott may be the most overlooked value at quarterback in fantasy football this season, according to data from the Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator run by PFSN. While managers chase flashier names, the numbers point to Prescott as a player who could deliver consistent, high-end fantasy production at a smart draft price.
A pattern that stands out is Prescott’s connection between the Cowboys’ success and his fantasy output. In his last 12 wins, Prescott averaged about 23 fantasy points per game, with seven of those outings topping the 20-point mark. In contrast, during 12 recent defeats, his average drops to roughly 14.4 points per game, and only three games exceeded 20 points. In other words, Prescott’s best fantasy weeks have tended to arrive when Dallas is winning on the field.
The supporting cast and game plan have also played a big role. Prescott’s efficiency has been helped by his ability to connect on vertical routes, and a notable stat illustrates the impact: since Week 8, his touchdown passes targeting vertical routes are leading the league. No other quarterback has more than 11 such TDs in the same span, underscoring Prescott’s ability to strike deep and frequently when the offense is clicking.
Beyond raw numbers, environmental and schedule factors appear favorable for Prescott’s fantasy upside. Historical data shows that a large share of his top performances—roughly 15 of his top-20 fantasy games—occurred when kickoff temperatures were 60 degrees or higher, suggesting weather and comfort can amplify his production. Looking ahead, Dallas fans and fantasy managers have reason to be optimistic about the schedule: after their Week 10 bye, they enter a stretch with four of six games at home. The two road trips in this span are indoors, including matchups against the Raiders and Lions, which should help the offense maintain consistency.
All of this contributes to a narrative: Prescott could deliver value that outperforms his draft position. With expectations for the Cowboys to improve and with environmental and scheduling advantages in place, Prescott presents a compelling case as a weekly starter who won’t require a premium draft price. Smart managers may find that Prescott’s historical performance in favorable conditions, combined with Dallas’ potential for more wins, creates a reliable ceiling at a discount compared with other top signal-callers.
Why this matters for drafting strategy
– Don’t overlook the value of quarterback stability paired with favorable surroundings. Prescott’s production tends to rise with Dallas’ success, so monitoring the Cowboys’ overall trajectory and injury news is worthwhile.
– Consider early-round components around him that can maximize upside—top receivers, a strong running game, and a defense that can keep games inside a favorable scoring range.
– In drafts, Prescott could be purchased after the top-tier names, offering a balance of safety and upside when the surrounding pieces align.
Optional takeaway for readers preparing for drafts
– Target Prescott with confidence in mid-to-late rounds relative to the elite quarterbacks. He benefits from a high floor in wins and a ceiling that can spike in the right matchups or weather conditions.
– Pair him with a dependable receiving corps and an offense that wins at home, where he has shown the best chance to produce 20+ fantasy points.
Summary
Dak Prescott’s fantasy outlook isn’t built on flashes alone but on a proven connection between Dallas’ victories and his scoring potential. With a favorable stretch of games on the horizon and a history of big performances in warmer conditions, Prescott represents a prudent, potentially league-winning value at quarterback this season.
Positive note
If Dallas continues their winning ways, Prescott’s fantasy ceiling could rise even higher, delivering consistent weekly production and a win-rate boost for fantasy managers who invest with discipline and patience.
Added value and context
– The analysis highlights how environmental factors and schedule timing can amplify a quarterback’s fantasy output. Managers who track weather patterns and home-field advantages alongside team momentum may find Prescott to be a smarter pick than his perceived value suggests.