Cade Horton continued to press his case as one of the most intriguing breakout stories of the Cubs’ season, delivering another eye-catching performance even as a late-inning run blemish lingered over a win at Toronto. Horton was charged with a run after exiting with two men on base, a run that scored on Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s 111.8 mph “missile” off the at-bat that followed. The run was charged to Horton because he left the game with the inherited runners, but Andrew Kittredge allowed the hit that brought it home. It wasn’t a blemish on Horton’s night so much as a reminder that even when the shield is off, Vladito can still produce a moment.
That inning aside, Horton’s line looked strikingly different from the trouble he battled in June. It marked the first run he’d surrendered in five starts since the All-Star Break, and it came after a stretch in which his scoreless streak reached 29 innings. Over those five starts since the break, he’d allowed just 11 hits, with only one going for extra bases. More importantly, Horton shook off some late-season fatigue with a new career high of eight strikeouts in the outing, and he had the Blue Jays waiting for a hit until the sixth inning.
The numbers tell a story of rapid ascent. Since July 1, Horton owns a 1.13 ERA over 40 innings, while opponents are hitting just .165 against him. In a National League rookie class that’s been described as weak and weird, Horton’s emergence has shifted the conversation, with some observers even giving a nod to Isaac Collins as the moment’s top rookie of the year consideration—yet Horton’s stock continues to rise as he tightens his grip on a big-league role.
Pitching is where Horton has stood out. His four-seam fastball sits at an average 95.6 mph, touching 98, and its value lies not in pure velocity but in its unusual movement. Horton’s heater is among the rare four-seamers with neutral or glove-side movement, a departure from the typical arm-side run that makes life difficult for opposite-handed hitters. He sits in the upper tier of velocity with this atypical movement, a duo that makes the pitch especially tough to square up.
Beyond the fastball, Horton’s mix is built to keep hitters off balance. He uses a sinking option for righties, but his primary out-pitch against many foes is a sweeper with whiff velocity. He’s posted a 40.4% whiff rate on that pitch, ranking ninth in the league among pitchers who’ve thrown at least 200 such deliveries this season. Garrett Crochet sits nearby on the leaderboard, underscoring how Horton has become adept at producing whiffs with breaking and movement pitches.
For left-handed hitters, Horton’s curveball stands out for its tight, vicious arc and deceptive delivery. Opponents are hitting just .194 with a .204 wOBA against it, a testament to its late bite and the way Horton can bury it in the zone or drop it into the top of the strike zone as needed. And his changeup—more of a tumbling, high-80s offering blended with a deceptive sell—has become an underappreciated weapon. Among pitches thrown at least 100 times this season, his changeup ranks in the top 10 for whiffs and sits well inside the top 40 for the lowest opponent batting average, even as its spin and velocity aren’t dramatic on their own. It plays off Horton’s cut-action fastball to give lefties another look that drags hitters away from the plate.
The Cubs’ playoff calculus remains real. Even with the division still within reach, Chicago is likely to pursue a wild-card spot, and Horton could prove to be one of their most valuable assets in a postseason scenario. If they reach October, Horton could be deployed as a multi-inning weapon or as a high-leverage starter capable of delivering length when needed. Still, there’s a healthy dose of caution around his workload. Horton has logged only 16 major league starts and hasn’t pitched deep into games—a function of both his lack of innings and the organization’s measured approach to his development after shoulder trouble in 2024. Counsell has shown a willingness to protect Horton’s arm, lifting him after modest pitch counts: 82 pitches in the latest start, 67 in the prior outing, and 71 before that.
The arc of Horton’s career offers both a story of immense upside and a reminder of how carefully teams must tread with young power pitchers. He came to the majors with a bumpy welcome after a standout collegiate run at Oklahoma and a history of injuries that limited his early development. A two-sport recruit who missed a season after Tommy John surgery, Horton’s path to the big leagues has been characterized by late-season breakthroughs and a willingness to trust his stuff in high-pressure moments.
If there’s a broader takeaway, it’s this: Horton’s blend of velocity, unusual movement, and an elite offspeed quartet gives him a real ceiling as a postseason weapon, particularly if Chicago can protect his workload and keep him healthy. The Cubs are betting that Horton’s growth curve isn’t a flash in the pan, but the next chapter in a pitching staff that could shape their playoff chances for years to come.
Summary: Cade Horton remains a standout Cubs rookie, combining elite velocity with unusual movement and a diverse mix of offspeed pitches that keep hitters off balance. While a late-inning miscue added a run to his ledger, his overall performances point to a potential playoff contributor who could give Chicago crucial length and bullpen versatility in the weeks ahead. The path requires careful management of his workload, but the upside remains compelling.