In 2025, Cuba faced an unprecedented demographic decline as over one million people fled the island since 2021. This migration has reduced the effective population from approximately 11.3 million to between 8.6 and 8.8 million, mirroring figures seen in the mid-1980s. This significant exodus is reshaping the migratory patterns of the Cuban diaspora, with Brazil, Spain, and various Latin American countries growing in prominence as destinations, in contrast to the traditional weight of the United States.
The migration crisis gained momentum following the July 11, 2021 protests, fueled by government repression, declines in living standards, and failing basic services like electricity and healthcare. This led to historic waves of migration; over 860,000 Cubans reached the United States between 2021 and mid-2024, particularly during the 2022-2023 period when both land and maritime routes were heavily utilized.
Despite the dire demographic data, the Cuban government has been reticent in revealing accurate emigration statistics, maintaining that individuals retain their “resident” status for up to two years after leaving. Official figures from the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI) reported a decrease of 10.1% in the effective population by the end of 2023 and a further decline by the end of 2024, reflecting a net loss of more than one million inhabitants.
Demographer Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos projects the resident population to be around 8.62 million, marking an 18% reduction since 2022. This unprecedented demographic shift surpasses previous migratory crises in Cuban history.
The United States has been a primary destination for Cuban emigrants due to supportive policies. However, the flow diminished in fiscal year 2024, attributed to tightened immigration controls under the Biden administration and further regulatory changes initiated when Donald Trump returned to the presidency in early 2025.
Brazil emerged as a new central destination for Cuban migrants, surpassing Mexico in asylum applications. In 2024, Brazil received nearly 20,000 applications, a figure that increased significantly in 2025 with over 34,000 asylum requests recorded in just ten months. This shift reflects the closure of routes to the U.S. and Brazil’s perception as a more favorable environment for asylum seekers.
Spain has solidified its position as the second major hub of Cuban emigration, with nearly 200,000 Cubans residing there as of January 2023. Recent years have seen a steady influx, with thousands arriving annually, driven by Spain’s favorable policies for descendants of Spanish citizens and an accessible labor market.
Mexico remains a significant destination for asylum seekers and a transit country en route to the United States. The number of asylum applications from Cubans to Mexico has continued to rise in 2025, highlighting the dual role the country plays in Cuban emigration.
Uruguay also has established itself as an alternative destination, with a notable increase in residency grants and asylum applications, bolstered by effective migration regularization programs.
The demographics of recent emigrants indicate a striking feminization of the migration flow, with women now making up a majority of those leaving. This trend, alongside a youth-driven demographic, poses significant implications for Cuba’s birth rates and workforce.
Cuba’s aging population and the inability to maintain sustainable birth rates, combined with the loss of young, educated individuals, create a pressing demographic crisis. The emigration contributes to a “perfect demographic storm,” where declining birth rates and an aging population threaten the country’s social and economic fabric.
As the island continues to see a substantial loss of its population, deeper systemic issues—rooted in economic recession, political repression, and the deterioration of essential services—remain unaddressed. The reconfiguration of migratory flows highlights not just the immediate challenges for host countries in accommodating increased numbers of asylum seekers, but also the long-term implications for Cuba’s development and resilience in the face of ongoing crises.