The Alabama Crimson Tide will face the Mercer Bears this Saturday at Bryant-Denny Stadium, in a matchup that promises excitement for college football fans. Historically, the Crimson Tide have had a strong performance against Mercer, winning all previous encounters. These matchups include victories in 1939 and 1940 (both 20-0), a decisive 56-0 win in 2017, and a 48-14 victory in 2021, although the Bears managed to cover a massive 54-point spread in that last game.
Heading into Week 12, Alabama is a heavy favorite with a spread of -41.5, while Mercer has kept a good record against the spread, going 7-3 this season. Alabama’s performance has been less consistent, with a 5-4 record against the spread and struggles to cover large spreads in previous games. The total points are set at 58.5, with an expectation that the under may be a popular bet given recent trends.
The Bears, currently ranked No. 7 in the FCS, have proven their resilience. Their only loss was to the Samford Bulldogs, but a defeat against Alabama wouldn’t hurt their ranking. They are eyeing a strong finish with their final game against the 2-7 Furman Paladins on the horizon.
As for winning probabilities, Alabama stands at an impressive 99.9%, while Mercer lands at a slim 0.01%. This reflects Alabama’s dominance, especially following their recent victories against Missouri and LSU. The Crimson Tide’s ground game has been particularly formidable, while their defense has maintained tight control, allowing only a single touchdown in the past two games.
Although it appears daunting for Mercer, they excel in several defensive categories, including limited opponent scoring and rushing yardage. They are especially proficient in third-down defense, leaving opponents with a meager 21.4% conversion rate. If they manage to leverage these strengths, they could potentially keep the game closer than anticipated and cover the spread.
While an upset seems unlikely against the powerhouse Alabama, Mercer has the tools to make the matchup competitive. With their elite defense on display, the Bears look to challenge the Tide and potentially secure a moral victory by keeping the score within the expected range.
Predicted final score: Alabama 42, Mercer 10.
This matchup serves as a reminder of the unpredictable nature of college football, where even heavy underdogs can provide surprises and showcase their capabilities against bigger programs. It highlights the competitive spirit of the sport as Mercer seeks to make a statement, regardless of the outcome.