COP30 Countdown: Is the Emissions Curve Really Turning Down?

COP30 Countdown: Is the Emissions Curve Really Turning Down?

UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell recently announced promising developments in global efforts to combat climate change, indicating that the world is making progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. According to the latest update to the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) Synthesis Report, global emissions are projected to decrease by 12 percent by 2035 compared to 2019 levels, based on new commitments from 113 countries.

In a letter to Parties ahead of the upcoming COP30 conference, Stiell remarked, “Our update to the NDC Synthesis Report shows: The emissions curve is being bent downwards.” The report, issued on November 10, 2025, compiles data from nations that submitted their NDCs, reflecting a significant turning point in the fight against climate change.

Before the Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015, forecasts predicted a rise in global emissions of 20 to 48 percent by 2035. Today’s analysis, however, suggests a markedly improved scenario, with total global greenhouse gas emissions, including land use and forestry, expected to fall 12 percent by 2035. Despite this encouraging news, experts caution that more substantial cuts will be necessary to reach the 1.5°C target, underlining the need for urgency in climate action.

Stiell emphasized the importance of transforming climate commitments into tangible actions, stating, “Every fraction of a degree matters.” He called on world leaders to intensify their efforts as they gather in Belém for COP30, where crucial discussions around accelerating finance, technology transfer, and the implementation of climate plans will take center stage.

Reflecting on past climate conferences, the atmosphere surrounding this year’s COP30 is one of hope. UN Secretary-General António Guterres has urged nations to strengthen their climate targets, emphasizing that the future of the planet depends on decisive action. Leaders are being encouraged to view climate financing as an investment in global sustainability rather than mere charity, a sentiment echoed throughout previous climate events.

As nations come together in Belém, there is a sense of optimism that collaboration and innovation can lead to meaningful improvements in addressing climate change. The outcomes of COP30 could pave the way for more ambitious climate plans and strategies essential for creating a sustainable future for generations to come.

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