As the Virginia election approaches, the race for attorney general is gaining significant attention due to controversial text messages from Democratic nominee Jay Jones that have come to light. The messages, sent in 2022 to Republican House of Delegates candidate Carrie Coyner, depict a hypothetical scenario in which Jones expresses a desire to harm then-Virginia House Speaker Todd Gilbert.
In the resurfaced texts, Jones wrote about a gruesome hypothetical situation asserting that if Gilbert were grouped with two infamous figures, he would receive both bullets. The message starkly reads, “Three people, two bullets… Gilbert gets two bullets to the head.”
The fallout from these messages has led to calls for Jones to withdraw from the election from both sides of the political spectrum. Consequently, recent polls indicate a tightening race between Jones and Republican incumbent Jason Miyares, though the true polling picture remains unclear.
Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball from the University of Virginia Center for Politics, noted that there has not been comprehensive, unbiased polling in the wake of the controversies. Several polls, including those from Jones’ campaign, suggest he is losing support, which is not surprising given the gravity of the situation.
As tension mounts, the candidates are preparing for their first and only debate scheduled for Thursday. Kondik anticipates that Miyares will strategically highlight Jones’ messages during this debate. Furthermore, he pointed to Miyares’ effective advertisements that leverage the text controversy to his advantage.
Despite the ongoing controversy, Kondik believes the overall political landscape remains favorable for Democrats in Virginia. He referenced polling from the governor’s race, which shows Democrat Abigail Spanberger leading over Republican candidate Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears. However, with recent events potentially affecting Jones’ candidacy, it raises questions about whether he can benefit from the broader political trends in Virginia, as ticket-splitting appears to be on the decline.
In the end, the outcome of this election could serve as a significant indicator of the political climate in Virginia as it sets the stage for future contests. The focus will likely remain on how Jones manages the fallout from the texts and whether he can garner support despite the challenges presented by his controversial remarks.