The recently analyzed “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” aimed at financing much of President Donald Trump’s agenda, has drawn scrutiny for its potential impact on the deficit and health insurance coverage. According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the legislation could increase the deficit by $2.4 trillion over the next decade.
As discussions shift to the Senate, some Republicans are voicing concerns regarding the bill’s implications for federal spending and Medicaid. The CBO projects that by 2034, around 10.9 million additional individuals could be uninsured as a result of the proposed changes to Medicaid. Overall, the bill is estimated to affect 16 million people who may lose their health insurance due to new Affordable Care enrollment regulations and the expiration of certain tax credits.
While the CBO report indicates that the bill would lead to $3.7 trillion in tax cuts and $1.2 trillion in spending reductions, its comprehensive macroeconomic effects remain under analysis. The White House has preemptively defended the bill, with Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller characterizing the CBO as having a “lefty” bias and asserting the legislation as a “dream bill” for the American economy. Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought dismissed the CBO’s estimates as flawed, arguing that adjustments for a more realistic baseline would demonstrate a reduction in the deficit.
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise criticized the CBO’s report for failing to account for anticipated economic growth. In a related context, the CBO also responded to Senate Democrats inquiring about Trump’s tariffs, revealing that while tariffs could contract the economy and elevate inflation, they might also help decrease the deficit by $2.8 trillion.
Although the bill narrowly passed in the House, some GOP members, including Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, have expressed regret and are calling for revisions. Following previous criticisms from Trump regarding hesitant Republican senators, notably Sen. Rand Paul, legislators like Sen. Ron Johnson have voiced their opposition to a deficit exceeding $2 trillion, expressing a desire for more sustainable fiscal solutions.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer pointed to the CBO report to amplify concerns regarding the bill’s implications on health insurance accessibility and its potential toll on rural hospitals and nursing homes, labeling the proposed changes as detrimental.
The forthcoming discussions in the Senate will be pivotal in determining the path of this significant piece of legislation. Despite the hurdles, continued dialogue may foster revisions that could align more closely with fiscal sustainability and health equity goals. This emphasis on collaboration will be crucial in navigating the complexities of national policies and their broader implications.