Asteroid 2024 YR4, estimated to be between 40 and 100 meters wide, is set to make a close approach to Earth in December 2032, sparking concerns over its potential to impact our planet. Dubbed “the city destroyer” due to its size and speed, 2024 YR4 carries an estimated 2 percent chance of hitting Earth, according to the European Space Agency. This probability may evolve as scientists gather more data about the asteroid’s trajectory.
If a collision were to occur, the results could be catastrophic. Current assessments suggest that the impact could create an airburst equivalent to nearly 8 million tons of TNT—500 times more powerful than the bomb dropped on Hiroshima—affecting an area roughly 50 kilometers in radius. Key regions potentially endangered include parts of northern South America, southern Asia, and various countries such as India, Pakistan, and Sudan.
The asteroid’s risk is classified on the Torino scale, where it currently sits at level 3, indicating significant monitoring requirements. Experts remain optimistic, as previous cases such as asteroid Apophis show that risks can diminish with improved tracking and understanding of an asteroid’s path. Initially assessed with a higher collision probability, Apophis later was determined to have a zero chance of impact during its close approach in 2029.
In light of these findings, the United Nations has activated emergency protocols to ensure ongoing monitoring of 2024 YR4. Advancements in asteroid deflection strategies are also underway, building on the success of NASA’s DART mission, which demonstrated the capability to alter an asteroid’s trajectory through kinetic strikes.
As scientists and international agencies continue to monitor 2024 YR4, there is hope that precautionary measures will further reduce any potential threats from space. The ongoing evolution of our understanding of asteroids emphasizes the importance of vigilance and collaboration in safeguarding our planet from cosmic dangers.