Cincinnati Reds’ postseason aspirations took a hit after losing 4-2 to the Pittsburgh Pirates on September 23, which has left them trailing the New York Mets by one game for the final National League playoff spot. This defeat intensifies the race as the MLB regular season nears its end, with only five games remaining for the Reds to reclaim their position. Currently, the Reds stand with an 80-77 record, and according to FanGraphs, they have a 20.9% probability of making it to the postseason. Baseball Reference offers a slightly more optimistic 24% chance. Before the loss to the Pirates, their chances were nearly 50% on both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference.
For bettors looking to place wagers on the Reds, BetMGM lists their odds to make the playoffs at -130 and +110 to miss them. Should they defy the odds and reach the World Series, Baseball Reference suggests they have a 1.2% chance of making it and a 0.4% chance of clinching the championship, whereas FanGraphs estimates their World Series win probability at 0.2%. BetMGM places the Reds’ odds to claim the pennant at +3000, with their prospects of winning the World Series standing at +6600, ranking them 14th among all MLB teams.
The Reds last tasted postseason action in 2020, but their journey was cut short in the NL wild card series by the Atlanta Braves. As the season concludes, Reds fans will be anxiously watching to see if their team can mount a late surge to capture the wild card spot and keep their playoff dreams alive.