Scott Singer and Pavlo Zvenyhorodskyi, experts from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, highlight a significant shift in the landscape of artificial intelligence (AI), particularly with China’s advancements in embodied AI technology. This follows the earlier revelation that China’s DeepSeek lab developed an advanced language model that competed closely with the best global offerings, demonstrating that Chinese AI labs are rapidly closing the gap with American counterparts.
The trend continues as Chinese labs are intensifying their focus on embodied AI, which involves hardware systems like robots and drones that can autonomously navigate and learn from their environments, moving beyond simply following programmed instructions. Although these technologies are not yet widespread, the strategic emphasis on embodied AI carries potential for considerable economic and geopolitical benefits for China.
The Chinese government has placed great emphasis on AI-powered robotics, categorizing it as a priority in several key policy documents over the past year. Most notably, it is included in the upcoming 15th five-year plan from the Chinese Communist Party, where it is positioned as a critical driver for economic growth through the early 2030s.
China’s economy, currently grappling with a downturn in the real estate sector and sluggish domestic consumption, is eyeing the integration of embodied AI into vital industries as a means to enhance productivity and mitigate labor shortages. An example of this can be seen in the use of humanoid robots on assembly lines, capable of performing intricate tasks continuously, an indication of the potential efficiency that could be unlocked.
In addition to economic applications, embodied AI offers military implications for China. Drones equipped with advanced autonomy could significantly bolster China’s military capabilities, allowing for operations that are less dependent on human oversight and enhancing their overall resilience in electronic warfare scenarios.
Moreover, leveraging its manufacturing capabilities, China aims to become a leading global producer of embodied AI systems. This could establish China as a principal supplier of intelligent robots and autonomous platforms, granting it considerable geoeconomic clout—a stark contrast to domains like 5G or solar technology.
While there are notable challenges, such as limited access to advanced AI chips and reliance on Western technology for high-end sensors, history suggests that underestimating China’s ability to navigate obstacles could lead to significant surprises, much like the previous advancements seen with DeepSeek.
Conversely, the U.S. has not prioritized the development of embodied AI on a strategic level, focusing predominantly on a limited number of private entities. This lack of attention underscores the necessity for the U.S. to recognize China’s advancements in AI policy and the rapid progress being made in this sector. Developing robust analytical capabilities around China’s AI progress should be a priority to ensure that the U.S. can respond effectively.
To compete effectively in embodied AI, the U.S. must not only leverage its talent and capital but also rebuild manufacturing infrastructure. The government could play a pivotal role by investing in this infrastructure, fostering collaborations between tech innovation centers and manufacturing hubs, and introducing policies that create demand for domestic embodied AI systems. Additionally, forming partnerships with European and East Asian nations could further boost the competitiveness of the U.S. in this transformative technology, setting the stage for a formidable response to evolving global AI dynamics.