The Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) are set to face the New Orleans Saints (2-2) in Monday Night Football, wrapping up Week 5 of the NFL season. This week, the Chiefs placed receiver Rashee Rice on injured reserve due to a knee issue, prompting them to rely on tight end Travis Kelce and rookie receiver Xavier Worthy to elevate their performance. The Saints, who started the season strong, lost their last two games but managed to cover the points spread (+2.5) in last week’s game against the Falcons, boosting their record to 3-1 against the spread. The Chiefs have a record of 2-1-1 against the spread after pushing at -7 in their recent victory over the Chargers.
Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Kansas City, originally favored by 7.5 points, is now at 5.5 points, according to the latest betting lines, while the total points over/under is set at 43, down from 45. Before making any bets on the Chiefs vs. Saints matchup, it’s advisable to consider the predictions and betting analysis from the SportsLine Projection Model.
This model simulates each NFL game 10,000 times and has significantly profited players over the years. Entering Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season, it has an impressive record of 188-131 on its top-rated NFL picks since 2017 and is currently on a 42-23 streak since Week 7 of 2022.
Additionally, the model has ranked in the top 10 for straight-up NFL picks on NFLPickWatch for four of the previous six years and has outperformed over 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players multiple times during that period. Those who followed the model closely have seen considerable gains.
Having simulated the Saints vs. Chiefs matchup 10,000 times, the model has released its NFL picks and predictions for Week 5. Here are the current NFL odds for the game:
Saints vs. Chiefs spread: Kansas City -5.5
Saints vs. Chiefs over/under: 43 points
Saints vs. Chiefs money line: Kansas City -242, New Orleans +197
Key trends include the Chiefs hitting the fourth-quarter under in 17 of their last 19 games and the Saints hitting the second-half money line in 10 of their last 13 contests.
Reasons the Chiefs can cover include their reliance on star quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Despite offensive injuries, Mahomes remains a key player, currently ranking 11th in the league with 904 passing yards and tied for fifth with six passing touchdowns. Last week, he completed 19 of 29 passes for 245 yards and one touchdown. Additionally, running back Kareem Hunt, who is back in Kansas City, offers productive performances, as he showcased with 69 rushing yards last week. Rookie receiver Xavier Worthy’s speed adds another dimension, as he has recorded nine receptions for 154 yards and two touchdowns so far.
On the Saints’ side, running back Alvin Kamara is a notable threat, despite some practice limitations due to injuries. Kamara is tied for second in the league in carries and fourth in rushing yards. He has consistently accumulated over 110 total scrimmage yards per game this season. Receiver Chris Olave is another impactful player for the offense, with 20 catches for 265 yards and a touchdown this year.
The SportsLine model leans towards the over for the point total, predicting a combined total of 46 points between the two teams. Analysis indicates that one side of the spread is likely to cash in over 50% of simulations.
As the Chiefs and Saints prepare for their matchup, you can find out which team is favored to win and which side of the betting line looks promising by checking in with the SportsLine model’s predictions.