A significant winter storm is poised to impact Central Jersey on January 25-26, with forecasts indicating an accumulation of 10-12 inches of snow. Average temperatures during the storm are expected to range between 10 and 15 degrees Fahrenheit, with wind gusts reaching up to 20 mph. The impending storm is anticipated to cause historic ice storms and heavy snowfall across southern states as well.
As of January 21, confidence in the forecast for Central Jersey has been increasing. Although exact timing remains uncertain, there is a strong consensus among computer models predicting substantial snowfall across the region, including areas such as Perth Amboy, South Brunswick, and Plainfield. The latest updates from weather models, as of 6 a.m. on Thursday, project anywhere from 7 to 11 inches of snow from Sunday morning to Monday afternoon. The American model has raised its prediction to 10.1 inches, while the European model maintains a forecast of 7.4 inches.
Interestingly, the European model also predicts about .18 inch of ice due to freezing rain late in the storm, aligning its forecast with earlier estimations. The National Weather Service has issued a winter storm watch for Central Jersey that will be in effect from 1 a.m. on Sunday until 1 p.m. on Monday, highlighting the potential for significant impacts even as the exact snow totals remain uncertain.
Current models suggest that snow will start falling over Central Jersey between 8 and 10 a.m. on Sunday, with the most intense snowfall expected in the afternoon and evening. Some predictions indicate light snowfall could linger into Monday, while others believe the storm will exit by Sunday night. As the storm nears, computer models become more reliable within 75 hours prior to the event, but there is a chance that the storm could deviate from expected tracks, resulting in mixed precipitation instead of snow in some areas.
One of the unique factors for this upcoming winter storm is the cold temperatures, which are set to remain in the teens on Sunday, only rising above 20 degrees on Monday. Freezing rain could occur if warmer air moves in from the Atlantic Ocean during the storm. This scenario is characteristic of significant northeast snowstorms, as the collision of Arctic air with warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico can lead to explosive winter weather conditions.
In a silver lining, Central Jersey may dodge the worst impacts compared to southern states like Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Kentucky, which are bracing for potentially 20 inches of snow, along with significant ice storms anticipated in areas such as Atlanta and across the Carolinas.
As a reflection, this storm occurs nearly ten years following the infamous “snowzilla” storm that blanketed Central Jersey with over two feet of snow from January 22-24, 2016, marking one of the region’s greatest snowfall records.
Following this weekend’s snow event, Central Jersey can expect a continued deep freeze, with temperatures remaining below freezing, only slightly inching toward freezing later in the week as another Arctic front approaches. Residents are encouraged to stay updated on the latest weather alerts and prepare for potential disruptions ahead of this major winter storm.