The St. Louis Cardinals travel to the Tampa Bay Rays for a Tuesday night clash at George M. Steinbrenner Field. First pitch is set for 7:35 p.m. ET on FDSSUN.
Projected pitching matchup
– St. Louis Cardinals: Sonny Gray
– Tampa Bay Rays: Joe Boyle
Gray has been in better form in August after a rough July, when he posted a 7.81 ERA over six starts. Through August, he’s shown progress with two solid outings against the Dodgers and Cubs, though he did allow six runs in a start against the Yankees last week. His month-to-month metrics reveal a favorable trend: his expected batting average for August sits around .204, paired with an expected slugging around .400. Gray continues to strike hitters at a high clip, while maintaining solid walk discipline. His ground-ball rate has ticked up as the year has progressed, helping him keep the ball in the infield and minimize hard contact.
Boyle’s challenge is more about control than stuff. His 25.9% whiff rate on his fastball remains a weapon, and his slider and splitter have been effective, but command has lingered as an issue—home on balls in play and walks have been higher than ideal. He’s shown a tendency to give up fly balls and has been hurt by the long ball at this level. In addition, the Rays have been dealing with higher strikeout rates lately, a trend that could play into a matchup with a patient, disciplined Cardinals lineup.
Betting focus and odds
– Cardials vs Rays odds lean toward the Cardinals on the moneyline, with Cardinals moneyline typically in the -115 to -125 range in recent projections.
– The betting analysis suggests backing Gray to manage the Rays’ offense in a park that can play as a neutral to slightly pitcher-friendly environment, while Boyle’s control issues give the Cardinals a path to capitalize if he issues free passes.
Key trends to watch
– Cardinals’ plate discipline has slipped modestly in recent weeks, dropping walks to around the mid-single digits while keeping strikeouts manageable. Their OPS against fly-ball pitchers remains a point of emphasis, and their power has been limited by their home ballpark.
– Rays’ lineups have shown a proclivity for strikeouts, especially against ground-ball pitchers. They have been vulnerable to elevated strikeout rates and have allowed more contact on balls in play than they would likely prefer.
– The park in Tampa Bay tends to suppress power somewhat, which could favor Gray if he keeps the ball on the ground and avoids the long ball.
What to watch
– Gray’s ability to locate his pitches and execute his game plan will be crucial. If he can continue his August momentum, he gives STL a good chance to quiet Tampa’s offense.
– Boyle’s walk rate will be a critical factor. Limiting free passes will allow him to exploit his Swing-and-Mear turns with his velocity and secondary offerings.
– The Cardinals’ game plan against Rays’ contact-heavy approach in a hitter-friendly environment will be interesting to see if STL can muster timely hits without chasing.
Injury notes
– No major injuries or late updates reported for either team ahead of this game.
Bottom line
This matchup features a veteran trying to sustain late-season form against a young pitcher trying to prove himself as a playoff-intriguing arm. The Cardinals are favored on the moneyline, with value seen in Gray’s recent improvements and the Rays’ struggles with strike-throwing and power in this park. If Gray can continue to bounce back and Boyle can tighten his command, St. Louis could grab a road win and build momentum in a tight stretch run. For viewers, expect a pitching-focused game with opportunities for both sides to capitalize on mistakes.