The St. Louis Cardinals will try to even their three-game interleague series at Comerica Park on Saturday after a 4-0 loss to the Detroit Tigers in the home opener on Friday. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET on April 4, and Detroit enters as the favorite on the money line at around -163 with the total set at 7.5 runs.
A computer simulation model that runs 10,000 iterations of each game has flagged the matchup as one likely to produce offense. The model projects an average of roughly 8.8 combined runs and finds the over of 7.5 runs landing in about 61 percent of its simulations. That projection aligns with recent and recent-season offensive profiles: Detroit finished 2025 with 758 runs (an average of 4.7 per game) while St. Louis scored 689 (4.3 per game).
The model’s projections extend to individual hitters. It forecasts at least 1.5 total bases from Cardinals bats Alec Burleson, J.J. Wetherholt and Masyn Winn, and about 1.49 total bases or more from Tigers sluggers Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter and Kevin McGonigle. The projection tool has been cited for previous success — it went 35-29 on top-rated MLB money-line picks in the prior season and had strong returns on home-run prop selections — which the developers say underpins the credibility of its simulations for this weekend’s matchup.
Both teams enter Saturday with early-season records slightly on the positive side of .500: St. Louis is 4-3 and Detroit 3-4. The 2025 campaign provides additional context for expectations — the Cardinals finished 78-84 and fourth in the National League Central, while the Tigers were 87-75 and second in the American League Central — signaling Detroit’s roster carried more recent regular-season success into this year’s opener at Comerica Park.
St. Louis’ pitching staff carried a 4.29 ERA last season, ranking 21st in MLB, a detail the model appears to weigh in projecting a higher-scoring game. Detroit’s lineup depth and run production from last year also bolster the simulation’s leaning toward offense, particularly in a ballpark with friendly dimensions for hitters on certain pitches.
Saturday’s result will determine whether the Tigers take a 2-0 series lead or the Cardinals force a rubber game Sunday. While the projection model indicates one side of the money line offers the clearest value, it stops short of a public, explicit single-game money-line recommendation in the summary; it does, however, provide the offensive and player-specific probabilities that shaped that view.