As the Catholic Church navigates the wake of Pope Francis’ passing on April 21, Cardinal Pietro Parolin has emerged as a frontrunner in betting markets for the papacy, with bettors giving him up to a 40% chance of being elected. This is despite the uncertainty inherent in the conclave process, where the decisions of 133 cardinals may diverge significantly from gamblers’ predictions.
Parolin, who has served as Francis’ secretary of state since 2013 and is regarded as a unifying figure between progressive and conservative factions, has garnered the majority of bets on platforms like Polymarket. In contrast to predictions made during the 2013 papal election, when Jorge Mario Bergoglio was viewed as a long shot with 50/1 odds, this situation underscores the unpredictability of the conclave.
However, the betting markets aren’t solely focused on Parolin. Cardinal Jose Tolentino de Mendonça from Portugal, while currently listed at 50/1 odds, has generated 7% of all bets in the past month. This suggests there’s room for surprises in the upcoming election, reinforcing the notion that “outsiders” shouldn’t be disregarded, as previously evidenced by unexpected electoral outcomes.
Professor Harry Crane from Rutgers University points out that while betting markets may not exhibit the same predictive power as those associated with political elections—due to the latter’s reliance on comprehensive polling data—they can still provide insights that help narrow down potential candidates. The limited pool of 130 cardinals means that informed bettors may have an advantage over random selection.
As the conclave progresses, favorites also include Cardinal Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle, often called the “Asian Francis,” known for his dedication to social justice; Cardinal Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson from Ghana, who would be the first pope from sub-Saharan Africa; and Cardinal Matteo Maria Zuppi, who is likened to Francis for his focus on migration and poverty. Each candidate brings unique experiences and perspectives that could significantly shape the future direction of the Church.
The ongoing conclave will reconvene on May 8, as the cardinals work toward electing a successor to Pope Francis. Regardless of the eventual outcome, this period marks an important chapter in the Church’s history, as it contemplates a leader who can guide it through contemporary challenges while staying true to its core values and mission.