Carlos Alcaraz kicked off his 44th week at the top of the ATP rankings yesterday, as he competes in the Paris Masters 1000. This tournament presents him with two potential outcomes: losing his number one ranking or securing it until the end of 2025. Alcaraz is set to debut in the tournament this afternoon against British player Cameron Norrie. His lead over Jannik Sinner, who recently clinched the ATP 500 title in Vienna by defeating Alexander Zverev, has narrowed. Consequently, Sinner has a chance to dethrone Alcaraz during this final Masters event of the season, although Alcaraz could also solidify his position until 2025.
Alcaraz remains unfazed by Sinner’s potential performance, as his own goal is to advance in a tournament that has historically eluded him, his best result being a quarter-final finish. Alcaraz is only defending 100 points from last year when he fell in the round of 16, while Sinner must defend 1,000 points. If Alcaraz reaches at least the quarter-finals, he will maintain his lead for at least another week, and with the points at stake in the ATP Finals, he could enter that tournament comfortably positioned.
Currently, Alcaraz has 11,340 points, with Sinner behind at 10,500, putting their difference at 840 points. Should Alcaraz not surpass the quarter-finals and finish with 11,420 points, and if Sinner were to win the Paris tournament, Sinner would take the lead by a narrow margin of 80 points. However, Sinner’s leadership would be temporary, as he would lose the 1,500 points accumulated from last year’s Paris tournament, allowing Alcaraz another chance to reclaim first place as the ATP Finals approach, needing to defend just 200 points.
The calculations are clear for Alcaraz: securing 500 points from the remaining 2,500 available this year will ensure he finishes 2025 in the top spot. This week holds the potential to alleviate any current uncertainty as both players can only meet again by the end of Sunday.
Today, Alcaraz faces Cameron Norrie, a former number 8 in the world who recently defeated Argentina’s Sebastian Báez in the first round. A question remains about Alcaraz’s performance on indoor courts, a surface that has not been his strong suit historically, despite winning his first indoor title earlier in the year in Rotterdam. He remarked, “I wouldn’t say I’m bad at playing on indoor courts. I think others are better than me. But I see myself training and playing matches where I can perform very well.” Alcaraz added that both the ATP Finals in Turin and representing his country in the Davis Cup are significant to him, highlighting the importance of this week in Paris.