On Wednesday, BYU will face off against the Oklahoma State Cowboys in Stillwater, as the Cougars seek to recover from back-to-back losses to two top-15 teams. KenPom, a leading source for college basketball analytics, forecasts BYU will have a 69% chance of victory, projecting a final score of 87-82 in favor of the Cougars.
Currently, BYU holds the 15th position in KenPom’s rankings and boasts impressive statistics, ranking 11th nationally for adjusted offensive efficiency and 34th for adjusted defensive efficiency. In comparison, the Cowboys are ranked 57th in KenPom, with their offensive efficiency sitting at 62nd and defensive efficiency at 84th.
KenPom has also provided predictions for each of BYU’s remaining games this season. The Cougars’ win probabilities for those matchups are as follows: 69% against Oklahoma State, 52% against Houston, 64% against Baylor, 90% against Colorado, 16% against Arizona, 46% against Iowa State, 82% against UCF, 66% against West Virginia, 69% against Cincinnati, and 68% against Texas Tech.
As BYU navigates this challenging stretch, KenPom estimates that the team will likely end the season with an average record of about 23.2-7.8, given their remaining schedule. With 10 games left, BYU currently stands at 17 wins, putting them in a position to potentially reach as many as 27 regular season victories if they can maintain a winning streak. The odds for reaching specific win totals present a promising outlook, with the team having a 43.2% chance of hitting 24 wins and an 18.1% chance of achieving 25 wins.
Finishing the season with 24 or 25 wins would significantly bolster BYU’s chances of obtaining a favorable seed in the NCAA Tournament. According to ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI), BYU currently has the fifth-best odds to win the Big 12, although Arizona is the clear frontrunner with a 77% chance following recent victories over BYU and Arizona State.
The upcoming games against Oklahoma State and Houston represent crucial opportunities for the Cougars. Securing wins in these matchups could propel BYU into contention for a top-four seed in the upcoming NCAA tournament, while losses may see them slip to the 5 or 6 seed range, making the stakes particularly high as the season progresses. As the Cougars aim to transform their challenges into opportunities, fans remain hopeful for a successful turnaround.