Nneka Ogwumike’s buzzer-beater lifts the Storm to an 84-82 victory over the Mystics as the WNBA playoff picture begins to take shape with 16 days left in the regular season.
With the stretch run underway, the league’s top teams—Minnesota, Atlanta, Las Vegas, Phoenix, and New York—are jockeying for seed and home-court advantage, while five other teams are tightly packed within four games of the final three playoff spots.
Storm outlook and key details
– Playoff odds: About 95% to make the postseason.
– Where they stand: Seattle sits at No. 6, having rebounded after a rough August that included a six-game stretch decided by 10 points or fewer and a sub-.500 mark. They’ve won four of their past five, punctuated by Ogwumike’s late heroics against Washington.
– Path forward: Seattle sits in a decent spot for now but must avoid dropping further and drawing a tough first-round matchup against powerhouse teams like the Lynx or Aces. The Storm have been stronger on the road (12-8) than at Climate Pledge Arena (8-10) and will close the season with four straight home-and-home-type contests to try to stabilize.
– Pivotal player: Dominique Malonga has emerged as a bright spot, delivering multiple 20-point games and several double-doubles in August as the Storm lean on her versatility and energy.
– Remaining games (6): @ IND (Aug. 26), @ MIN (Aug. 28), vs. CHI (Aug. 30), vs. LA (Sept. 1), vs. NY (Sept. 5), vs. GS (Sept. 9)
– Series notes: 1-2 vs. GS; 0-2 vs. IND; 1-2 vs. LA; 1-2 vs. WAS
Fever situation and near-term outlook
– Playoff odds: About 88% to make it, but the path is getting tougher with each setback and a clamped ceiling due to injuries.
– Health and lineup: Caitlin Clark has been limited to 13 games this season. Indiana has added Odyssey Sims, Shey Peddy and Aerial Powers to bolster experience, but the team is still missing other key contributors and faces a demanding remaining schedule.
– Remaining games (7): vs. SEA (Aug. 26), @ LA (Aug. 29), @ GS (Aug. 31), @ PHX (Sept. 2), vs. CHI (Sept. 5), @ WAS (Sept. 7), vs. MIN (Sept. 9)
– Series notes: 2-0 vs. SEA; 0-2 vs. GS; 0-3 vs. LA; 1-2 vs. WAS
– Notable questions: How quickly can Clark return and look close to her pre-injury form? Will Indiana’s new additions provide enough punch to stay in the mix as the schedule tightens?
Valkyries on the rise
– Playoff odds: About 39% to reach the postseason, a historic climb for an expansion team this early in their inaugural season.
– Status: Golden State has defied early expectations, setting a WNBA single-season record for expansion wins and drawing strong attendance as they push for a postseason berth despite injuries, including the loss of Kayla Thornton for the year.
– Pivotal player: Veronica Burton has become the team’s spark plug, ranking among the leaders in scoring, assists and steals. She has posted multiple 20+ point games and delivered a standout 24-point, 14-assist, zero-turnover performance last week, proving she can carry the offense when needed.
– Remaining games (7): vs. WAS (Aug. 30), vs. IND (Aug. 31), vs. NY (Sept. 2), vs. DAL (Sept. 4), vs. MIN (Sept. 6), @ SEA (Sept. 9), @ MIN (Sept. 11)
– Series notes: 2-1 vs. SEA; 2-0 vs. IND; 3-1 vs. LA; 3-0 vs. WAS
Sparks still alive after late surge
– Playoff odds: About 0.6%—a long shot but not impossible with a rugged remaining slate and a potential late-season run.
– What’s driving the push: Los Angeles has leaned on a high-scoring offense and some late-game efficiency. Paige Bueckers poured in 44 points in a recent clash, while Kelsey Plum delivered the timely game-winner to lift the Sparks.
– Pivotal player: Rickea Jackson has surged into a leading offensive role, climbing from 12.1 PPG to around 17+ PPG over a recent 15-game stretch, becoming a critical piece as the team tries to string together wins down the stretch.
– Remaining games (9): vs. PHX (Aug. 26), vs. IND (Aug. 29), vs. WAS (Aug. 31), @ SEA (Sept. 1), @ ATL (Sept. 3), @ ATL (Sept. 5), vs. DAL (Sept. 7), @ PHX (Sept. 9), vs. LV (Sept. 11)
– Series notes: 2-1 vs. SEA; 1-3 vs. GS; 3-0 vs. IND; 2-1 vs. WAS
Mystics’ playoff chances and challenges
– Playoff odds: About 0.6%? Wait, the current snapshot places Washington outside the main chase, with several teams ahead of them and six games left.
– Status: The Mystics are a surprise contender with a strong rookie duo in Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen and a rising Shakira Austin, but recent results have left them on the outside looking in. They’ll need a late surge and some help to crash the final berth.
– Pivotal players: Citron and Iriafen are the go-to scoring options, with Austin providing a dynamic inside presence. The team will need all three clicking to prolong its season.
– Remaining games (6): @ NY (Aug. 28), @ GS (Aug. 30), @ LA (Aug. 31), vs. PHX (Sept. 4), vs. IND (Sept. 7), @ NY (Sept. 9)
– Series notes: 2-1 vs. SEA; 0-3 vs. GS; 2-1 vs. IND; 1-2 vs. LA
What to watch as the stretch run unfolds
– Injury impact: The health of top players will shape outcomes, especially for teams relying on young talent stepping into bigger roles.
– Road vs. home balance: Some teams have found more success on the road than at home; the final four or five games will test whether that trend continues.
– Seed and matchup dynamics: With Seeding still fluid, several teams could end up in a variety of matchups, creating potential upsets and exciting early-round series.
Summary
The 2025 WNBA playoff race is tightening as the regular season winds down. Nneka Ogwumike’s late heroics highlighted Seattle’s resilience, while teams like Indiana, Golden State, Los Angeles, and Washington push to capitalize on momentum, depth, and health. With six or fewer games remaining for several clubs, every possession will matter in determining who clinches the final playoff spots and who closes out the season on a strong note.
A hopeful note
The league is proving its depth with rising stars and veteran leadership driving the drama. Young talents like Malonga, Burton, Citron, Iriafen, and Bueckers are elevating the level of play, and even teams facing long odds are showing fight. The closing weeks promise compelling basketball, meaningful meaningful basketball for the rest of the season, and the possibility of surprising upsets as the playoffs approach.