Buffalo, N.Y. – This Saturday will bring dry, quiet, and chilly weather to the Buffalo-Niagara region, but residents should brace for a significant shift as a moisture-rich weather system approaches on Sunday. The forecast indicates that widespread rain, potentially beginning as freezing rain in some areas, will sweep across the eastern Great Lakes from late Sunday into early Monday.
The National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch that encompasses all of Western New York, warning that rainfall could reach up to 1.5 inches during this period. Meteorologist John Hitchcock highlights the potential for heavy rainfall to develop throughout Sunday, particularly in the afternoon and evening. Given the current minimal snowpack in lower elevations, the combination of rain and melting snow from higher altitudes may elevate creek and river levels near flood stage.
Residents can expect that the most critical window for flooding concerns will be Sunday afternoon through late Monday, as temperatures are slated to drop below freezing, slowing runoff rates and allowing levels to decrease. For football fans attending the Bills-Eagles game at Highmark Stadium on Sunday afternoon, the forecast calls for soggy conditions, with anticipated temperatures in the 40s.
The impending weather system will also introduce a brief chance of wintry mix conditions early in the precipitation event, but forecasters believe that the shift toward warmer air will dominate the weather pattern. As the system departs, powerful winds are expected to affect the lakeshore region on Monday and Monday night.
In the wake of the rain, colder air will usher in the potential for significant lake effect snow beginning Monday afternoon. Initially, southwest winds will help form snow bands over the Niagara Frontier, but as winds shift to a westerly direction, the heaviest snow accumulations are anticipated in areas south of Buffalo and across ski country by Tuesday morning.
Wind gusts reaching 40 to 50 mph, especially northeast of Lake Erie, are expected, posing challenges such as blowing and drifting snow that could severely impair visibility. Residents are advised to prepare for potential challenges, particularly with root systems of shallow-rooted trees weakened by soggy ground.
The Flood Watch remains in effect from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon, with alerts warning of possible flooding linked to excessive rainfall. Affected areas, including Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Genesee, Niagara, Northern Erie, Orleans, Southern Erie, and Wyoming counties, may experience significant runoff, likely resulting in urban and low-lying area flooding. Residents should stay updated with the latest forecasts and be ready to respond to potential flood warnings.