Tenth seed Alexander Bublik is set to begin his 2026 Australian Open journey against Jenson Brooksby in what the betting markets consider an apparent mismatch. Fresh off a title win in Hong Kong, Bublik ended the previous season on a high note, having claimed four titles in 2025, including victories in Halle, Basel, Kitzbuhel, and Hangzhou. He also reached the semifinals in Paris and a quarterfinal in Vienna, showcasing his impressive form.
Bublik’s serve is a key aspect of his game, particularly advantageous on hard courts. His statistics from 2025 are telling, with 674 aces and an impressive 79% of first-serve points won, in addition to a solid break-point conversion rate of 39%. These figures contribute to his strong standing as a favorite in this match, especially against Brooksby, who comes into the season without recent competitive match experience.
Brooksby, currently ranked No. 48, looks to kick off his 2026 season with a solid performance. His stats from the previous year reveal potential in long exchanges, having won 30% of first-serve return points and converting 41% of break-point chances, but he has significantly fewer aces (117) and a lower first-serve win percentage of 68%. Bublik’s dominance may be challenged if Brooksby can apply pressure during returns, hinting at a potential for a longer match than what the odds suggest.
For today’s tennis picks, our best bet is on Alexander Bublik to win by a margin of -5.5 games, available at -126 odds on FanDuel. This strategy accounts for potential fluctuations in Bublik’s focus in a best-of-five set format, where he could still drop a set if he momentarily loses concentration. His serving statistics highlight a clear advantage, yet Brooksby’s return game suggests he can extend sets if he finds his rhythm.
Given the latest odds from major sportsbooks, Bublik’s moneyline stands at a substantial -430, while Brooksby’s sits at +340. The game handicap favors Bublik at -5.5, reflecting the disparity in their recent performances. The total number of games is set around 36, indicating expectations for a competitive match.
Assessing recent form, Bublik’s accomplishments include notable performances in Shanghai and Vienna last season, capped off with his title win in Hong Kong. Conversely, Brooksby’s recent outings have been less impressive, including an early exit at the US Open and a semifinal appearance in Tokyo.
In terms of head-to-heads, Brooksby holds a 1-0 lead over Bublik from their previous encounter in Canada four years ago, but considerable improvements from both players since that time have shifted the battlefield dynamics.
As match day approaches, fans can watch Bublik and Brooksby clash on January 18, 2026, at the Margaret Court Arena in Melbourne, with the match scheduled to begin not before 7:00 PM AEDT. Broadcasts will be available through various channels, including ESPN, TNT Sports, and Channel Nine, with streaming options accessible worldwide through services like ESPN+ and Tennis TV.
With Bublik’s current form and momentum, there is optimism that he will deliver a strong performance against Brooksby, potentially leading to a straightforward victory that could set the tone for the remainder of the tournament.