The excitement surrounding the 2026 men’s NCAA tournament continues to build, with just six weeks remaining until Selection Sunday. Teams are now intensely focused on securing their spots, and the looming question remains: Will your favorite team make the cut? As bracket predictions take shape, we’re tracking the progress of teams hovering on the “bubble.”
We’ll categorize teams based on their likelihood of getting one of the 37 at-large selections, which are up for grabs for those not winning their conference tournaments. Utilizing Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology projections and various data sources, including my forecast model and NCAA résumé metrics like NET rankings, we evaluate the potential of each team.
Teams are classified as follows:
Locks: These teams are practically guaranteed a spot, needing only a significant turnaround to miss the tournament. Currently, there are 24 teams in this category.
Should Be In: Teams that are trending above the cutline, likely to be called on March 15, but without guaranteed safety. There are currently 14 teams here.
Work To Do: These teams are right on the bubble, with their upcoming performances likely to alter their chances of making the tournament. This group consists of 22 teams.
Long Shots: Teams that need to exceed expectations or rely on unexpected outcomes in conferences to secure a bid. Their chances are slim without winning their conference tournaments.
Focusing on conference performances, we begin with the Big Ten, projected to secure 10 bids, including 9 at-large. Among the “locks” in this category are the Michigan Wolverines, Illinois Fighting Illini, Nebraska Cornhuskers, Purdue Boilermakers, and Michigan State Spartans.
Currently, several teams are in the “Should Be In” category, such as the Iowa Hawkeyes, whose NET ranking shows promise after a five-game winning streak. Indiana is also seeing positive momentum following an overtime victory over Wisconsin, improving their odds significantly.
The SEC expects 9.5 bids, with teams like Florida, Vanderbilt, and Tennessee in a strong position. Kentucky is showing resilience after bouncing back from previous losses, while Texas A&M maintains positive projections despite a recent nail-biter with Alabama.
In the ACC, seven teams are projected as probable bids, including “locks” like Duke and Virginia. The NC State Wolfpack’s recent strong performance has solidified their position close to lock status.
As we look towards the Big 12, Arizona and Houston stand as expected locks, while UCF Knights are battling for the seventh spot among the bubble teams.
The Big East sees its “locks” in UConn and St. John’s, with Villanova on the verge of joining them. They have been steadily gaining ground thanks to significant wins and manageable scheduling ahead.
Outside of these major conferences, teams like the Saint Louis Billikens and Utah State Aggies are making compelling cases for at-large bids. The Billikens, currently riding a 17-game win streak, are impressively placed among the nation’s top performers.
With mounting competitive importance, as the regular season approaches its climax, teams will strive to maximize their potential. The landscape continues to shift, and fans can anticipate a thrilling finish leading to Selection Sunday. As teams contend for NCAA tournament spots, dramatic moments await, emphasizing that every game matters in this exhilarating stretch of the season.