The Denver Broncos have secured the No. 1 seed in the AFC with an impressive 14-3 record, yet their confidence score stands at a modest 12 points out of a possible 40. Their current Super Bowl odds are rated at +700. This might raise eyebrows considering their performance over the season, especially since they managed to hold the top spot in the AFC for the last five weeks.
Analyzing their accomplishments reveals a formidable defense that ranked fifth in the NFL in expected points added (EPA) per play during the regular season, alongside a respectable offense placing 10th in the same category. However, the Broncos faced challenges that temper their lofty ranking. Throughout the season, they competed in only six games against playoff teams, two of which resulted in losses. Notably, they have a remarkable record of 11 one-score victories, but their point differential of +90 pales in comparison to other playoff contenders. The New England Patriots boast a stellar +170, followed by the Bills at +116 and the Texans at +109.
A further concern lies in the performance of quarterback Bo Nix, who has struggled in critical moments; he threw more touchdown passes than interceptions in just two of his last nine games leading into the postseason. While the advantages of holding the No. 1 seed are significant, questions linger about whether the Broncos can maintain their winning momentum against tougher, more experienced teams in the playoffs, starting with their imminent matchup against the Bills. The upcoming games will serve as a true test for the Broncos, making this an intriguing chapter in their pursuit of a Super Bowl title.