In 2019, “Joker” achieved remarkable success at the box office and became a significant cultural phenomenon. Although the R-rated film was inspired by the well-known Batman villain, it presented a much darker and more unsettling narrative, resembling Martin Scorsese’s “Taxi Driver” more than the lighter DC film “The Suicide Squad.”
Directed by Todd Phillips and featuring Joaquin Phoenix, “Joker” defied expectations and controversy surrounding security issues to amass $1.07 billion in global ticket sales on a modest $55 million budget. This staggering figure not only made “Joker” one of the most profitable superhero films ever but also led to 11 Academy Award nominations, paving the way for a sequel.
However, the upcoming sequel, “Joker: Folie à Deux,” set to premiere in theaters on Friday, may face challenges at the box office. The film, which sees Phoenix return as Arthur Fleck alongside Lady Gaga as Harley Quinn, is projected to earn between $50 million and $65 million from approximately 4,100 North American theaters during its opening weekend. This marks a significant decline from the first film, which debuted with an impressive $96.2 million during the same timeframe in 2019, establishing an October opening weekend record. While the projected earnings for “Folie à Deux” are not alarming, they are disappointing considering the original’s success. The sequel has a much higher budget of $200 million.
Internationally, “Joker 2” is anticipated to perform better, with estimates ranging from $80 million to $85 million for the weekend. These figures could bring the film’s total global earnings to between $130 million and $150 million by the end of Sunday.
“Joker: Folie à Deux” appears to have all the elements of a hit; Phoenix is reprising his Oscar-winning role alongside an actress known for her dedicated performances and tremendous popularity as a pop star. Nonetheless, industry analysts suggest that the film’s premiere at the Venice Film Festival dampened some of the excitement and contributed to a less optimistic box office outlook. While Warner Bros. aimed to replicate the success of “Joker,” which won the festival’s prestigious award five years ago, the enthusiasm at the festival was not as robust for the sequel, leading to lukewarm word-of-mouth prior to its general release. Critics have also given mixed reviews, with “Joker” achieving a 69% rating on Rotten Tomatoes and “Folie à Deux” sitting at 63%, leaving room for audiences to flock to theaters to form their own opinions.
The first “Joker” movie offered a dark origin story of the infamous villain, depicted as a reclusive, struggling comedian and part-time clown. In the sequel, co-written by Phillips and Scott Silver, the Joker encounters his unstable muse, Harley Quinn, while imprisoned in Arkham Asylum for murder. The cast also features returning actress Zazie Beetz as Arthur’s former neighbor, with new additions Brendan Gleeson and Catherine Keener. Although the film has been labeled a musical, Phillips clarified that this description does not fully encompass its nature; instead, it features several song and dance numbers that serve as expressions of Arthur’s struggles to articulate his feelings.
While “Joker 2” is not the only new release this weekend, it is expected to dominate the domestic box office. Another newcomer is Lionsgate’s “White Bird,” which is marketed as both a prequel and sequel to the 2017 hit “Wonder” featuring Jacob Tremblay. Its expectations, however, are modest, targeting single-digit millions during the weekend. This would be a significant drop from “Wonder,” which opened with $27 million and ultimately earned $132 million domestically and $314 million worldwide.
Directed by Marc Forster, “White Bird” shifts the focus from Tremblay’s character Auggie to his middle school bully Julian, played by Bryce Gheisar. Set in contemporary times, Julian faces social ostracism for his past actions, prompting his grandmother to share her own experiences as a young Jewish girl during the Holocaust to help him change his ways. Despite initial potential, “White Bird” appears to be continuing a trend of underwhelming performances for Lionsgate, following recent releases like “Megalopolis,” “Never Let Go,” “The Killer’s Game,” and “Borderlands.”