Ryan Blaney’s Daytona triumph in the regular-season finale reshapes the NASCAR Cup Series playoff picture, vaulting Alex Bowman into the 16-driver field as the last seed. Bowman’s fate now hinges on playoff performance rather than regular-season momentum, a reminder that in this knockout format, seeding isn’t everything. History shows champions can defy seed expectations, so the door remains wide open for a surprising run.
Here’s a closer look at the 16 playoff contenders entering the opening round at Darlington Raceway, ranked by their playoff seeding and supplemented with why each driver can win and why they might fall short.
Kyle Larson
Rank: 1 | Playoff points: 32 | Wins: 3 (Homestead, Bristol, Kansas) | Best championship finish: 1st (2021)
Why he can win: Even if Larson and the No. 5 team haven’t been flawless, he remains a threat at any of the 10 tracks and holds the same 32 playoff points as the leader in most scenarios. A hot streak could deliver multiple wins and another title.
Why he might not: The summer lull has highlighted a level of inconsistency, and without momentum, that hiccup could be costly in a tight field.
William Byron
Rank: 2 | Playoff points: 32 | Wins: 2 (Daytona 500, Iowa) | Best championship finish: 3rd (2023, 2024)
Why he can win: Byron has arguably the strongest season overall, leading laps and carrying the regular-season crown, even after a midseason dip. He’s a legitimate title favorite if his performance returns to peak form.
Why he might not: Phoenix hasn’t been a speed-favoring track for Hendrick in this era, and a victory on that particular track could be pivotal for the title chances of other teams.
Denny Hamlin
Rank: 3 | Playoff points: 29 | Wins: 4 (Martinsville, Darlington, Michigan, Dover) | Best championship finish: 2nd (2010)
Why he can win: Hamlin is among the most dangerous playoff players, sitting in a strong win-and-points position and armed with a robust playoff-point cushion. A deep run is very plausible with the right rhythm.
Why he might not: The playoffs can bring bad luck or missteps for him, and the format has armed him with a familiar storyline of near-misses despite being a perennial contender.
Ryan Blaney
Rank: 4 | Playoff points: 26 | Wins: 2 (Nashville, Daytona summer) | Best championship finish: 1st (2023)
Why he can win: Team Penske’s strength on short, flat tracks is well-documented, and Blaney has been the organization’s standout performer this season. With several favorable venues on the schedule, another title isn’t out of the question.
Why he might not: Shared hurdles with teammates, particularly Logano, could complicate a title push if the season’s key rounds feature direct competition among Penske drivers.
Christopher Bell
Rank: 5 | Playoff points: 23 | Wins: 3 (Atlanta, COTA, Phoenix) | Best championship finish: 3rd (2022)
Why he can win: Bell is a versatile winner who can conquer any track type, aided by a top-tier crew chief in Adam Stevens. His spring sprint to three straight wins showed what his team can do when fully engaged.
Why he might not: He’s sometimes prone to mistakes that cost vital playoff points, and a few missteps could derail a longer title run.
Shane van Gisbergen
Rank: 6 | Playoff points: 22 | Wins: 4 (Mexico City, Chicago, Sonoma, Watkins Glen) | Best championship finish: N/A (first playoff appearance)
Why he can win: If a specific sequence of results plays out (points through Round 1, wins in critical rounds), a championship run isn’t impossible for the rookie in this series.
Why he might not: He’s still a work in progress on ovals, and winning a full playoff title in his first Cup Series postseason would be a tall order given the competition and the learning curve.
Chase Elliott
Rank: 7 | Playoff points: 13 | Wins: 1 (Atlanta) | Best championship finish: 1st (2020)
Why he can win: Elliott’s regular-season consistency—finishing near the front on a near-weekly basis—gives him a solid foundation to push for another deep run.
Why he might not: In the last stretch, he hasn’t shown the combination of race-win dominance and point-bonus accumulation that some rivals have, making a repeat championship bid more challenging.
Chase Briscoe
Rank: 8 | Playoff points: 10 | Wins: 1 (Pocono) | Best championship finish: 9th (2022)
Why he can win: Briscoe has been among the hottest drivers entering the playoffs, with standout average finishes and strong qualifying. He’s a classic dark-horse candidate who can surprise when the pressure is highest.
Why he might not: The playoff gap in points is a hurdle; he will likely need more than one victory to contend seriously for the title.
Bubba Wallace
Rank: 9 | Playoff points: 8 | Wins: 1 (Indianapolis) | Best championship finish: 10th (2023)
Why he can win: Wallace is enjoying what could be his best season yet, building momentum and scoring top-10s consistently. The schedule offers favorable track types for him in the later rounds.
Why he might not: Mistakes under pressure or laps of misfortune at critical moments could derail a breakthrough performance.
Austin Cindric
Rank: 10 | Playoff points: 8 | Wins: 1 (Talladega) | Best championship finish: 11th (2025)
Why he can win: Cindric excels at superspeedways and has a winning pedigree on similar tracks, which are part of the Round 3 mix. A smart, targeted approach could yield a surprising playoff run.
Why he might not: A string of single-digit finishes earlier in the season and limited top-fives suggest he needs a stronger late-season surge to mount a credible title challenge.
Ross Chastain
Rank: 11 | Playoff points: 7 | Wins: 1 (Charlotte) | Best championship finish: 2nd (2022)
Why he can win: A relentless, defense-minded driver who can maximize the speed his team brings, Chastain can rack up points with consistent performances and bold late-race gambits.
Why he might not: His team has shown variable speed, and starting closer to the back on several occasions makes it harder to collect stage points necessary for a deep run.
Joey Logano
Rank: 12 | Playoff points: 7 | Wins: 1 (Texas) | Best championship finishes: 1st (2018, 2022, 2024)
Why he can win: Logano and his crew chief are masters of the playoffs, often pulling off creative strategies to secure Championship 4 appearances. Don’t discount him even with a modest win total.
Why he might not: This season’s overall speed and top-10 counts aren’t as strong as in past title years, making a repeat of last year’s late-season surge more difficult.
Josh Berry
Rank: 13 | Playoff points: 6 | Wins: 1 (Las Vegas) | Best championship finish: 27th (2024)
Why he can win: Berry’s alignment with Penske’s resources and his strong short-oval credentials can provide a platform for a surprise run if he advances beyond the early rounds.
Why he might not: A thin playoff point buffer and limited recent top results are hurdles to a deep run.
Tyler Reddick
Rank: 14 | Playoff points: 6 | Wins: None | Best championship finish: 4th (2024)
Why he can win: Reddick remains among the sport’s most talented drivers, capable of a big late-season push if the No. 45 team catches fire.
Why he might not: The team has not shown the same level of consistency this year, and leading into the playoffs with fewer wins makes a title bid more difficult.
Austin Dillon
Rank: 15 | Playoff points: 5 | Wins: 1 (Richmond) | Best championship finish: 11th (2017, 2020, 2022)
Why he can win: Dillon has pop-in-his-pocket potential and has shown the ability to steal wins when it matters, like at Richmond. He’s a team that can surprise in the right circumstances.
Why he might not: Inconsistency and a sparse top-five count limit his ability to mount a prolonged title drive.
Alex Bowman
Rank: 16 | Playoff points: 2 | Wins: 0 | Best championship finish: 6th (2020)
Why he can win: When Bowman is clicking, he can surge to the front with wins at the best tracks in the playoff mix. Recent top-10s suggest he’s finding his stride at the season’s pivotal time.
Why he might not: Bowman is the only other champion-eligible driver without a win this year, and he hasn’t led many laps or claimed stage wins—factors that make a title push that much more challenging.
Outlook and additional context
– The opening round at Darlington promises a grueling test, with playoff caution and the need for clean, consistent runs. Track position and strategy will matter, as will the ability to capitalize on opportunities across a diverse set of tracks.
– The field is stacked with veterans who have demonstrated adaptability, alongside several younger, feisty contenders eager to prove themselves on the sport’s biggest stage.
– A positive storyline to watch: the playoff format continues to reward consistency and smartly timed aggression. If a driver like Bowman or Briscoe can string together a few strong performances, a championship bid remains within reach for multiple teams.
Summary
Bowman’s playoff entry injects fresh drama into the title chase, but the field is rich with potential champions. Larson and Byron carry strong momentum and track-record success, Hamlin and Blaney bring championship pedigree, and Bell, Briscoe, and Chastain add depth with proven talent across the playoff tracks. Darlington will set the tone for an postseason full of dramatic moments, strategic gambits, and, as always, the possibility of an upset run from a driver who can seize the moment.
A hopeful takeaway
The 2024 playoff field is a compelling mix of proven champions and hungry challengers. As the races unfold, fans can expect tense battles, strategic gambles, and a championship path that remains wide open for a few surprising outcomes, underscoring why the NASCAR playoffs are among the most unpredictable and exciting spectacles in sports.