Support for Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has significantly declined in the wake of a terrorist attack during a Hanukkah celebration at Bondi Beach, which has led to extensive criticism over his government’s handling of the situation. According to the most recent Resolve Political Monitor poll, Labor’s primary vote has dropped by 5 percentage points within a month, standing at 30 percent—the lowest since February of the previous year. The Coalition, while rising by 2 percentage points to 28 percent, has not effectively capitalized on Labor’s decline. Meanwhile, the political party One Nation has seen a surge in support, now at 18 percent, causing the two-party-preferred contest to narrow to 52-48 in favor of Labor, down from 55-45 in December.
Albanese’s approval ratings have also taken a hit, as his net performance score plummeted to minus 22 from plus 6, while his net likeability fell to minus 15 from plus 9 as voters express concerns over his leadership, competence, and communication. His standing as the preferred prime minister has dwindled, showing a stark decline of 11 percentage points against Opposition Leader Sussan Ley, who now trails closely behind him at 29 percent.
In response to the Bondi attack, which claimed 15 lives and injured 40 more, Albanese recalled Parliament to express condolences and discuss emergency legislation. This follows a significant reversal on his proposed gun laws and hate speech measures after facing backlash and dwindling political support for his original legislative approach. Albanese had previously resisted calls for a royal commission into rising antisemitism but ultimately relented as support for such an inquiry spiked from 48 percent to 61 percent in recent polls.
The public response to Albanese’s handling of the attack has been largely negative, with over half of polled voters rating it poorly. In contrast, Sussan Ley’s handling received favorable views from 53 percent of respondents, although there are signs of dissatisfaction with her as well. Jim Reed, a political analyst, emphasized the erosion of confidence in Albanese’s authority, indicating that voters are increasingly questioning his competence and consistency in leadership.
Despite Labor’s diminishing support, the Coalition has struggled to present strong alternative policies, leaving a portion of the electorate seeking alternatives outside the traditional major parties. The growing appeal of One Nation, now claiming a record primary vote share, reflects a shift in voter sentiment, with 42 percent expressing willingness to vote for parties other than Labor or the Coalition.
The impact of these events on future elections remains uncertain, but opinion polls suggest that many voters are feeling disillusioned, which could lead to a significant realignment in Australian politics as dissatisfaction with both major parties continues to grow.