Bitcoin (BTCUSD) appears poised to potentially reclaim the $100,000 mark as a support level, with indications suggesting it might rally towards $107,000 in the near future. This optimistic projection is bolstered by a combination of technical analysis and favorable macroeconomic factors.
Recently, Bitcoin successfully broke out from a multi-week ascending triangle pattern, entering a typical post-breakout retest phase. After surpassing the triangle’s upper boundary around $95,000, it has pulled back to this previous resistance level, which is now being tested as support. Sustaining this level is critical, as it keeps the breakout structure intact and sets the stage for a target near $107,000, projected by measuring the triangle’s height and adding it to the breakout point. The timeframe for achieving this target extends into February.
On the technical front, the Bitcoin daily chart is approaching a potential bullish crossover between the 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMAs). Historically, similar bullish crossovers have preceded significant price increases; for example, the last occurrence saw BTC prices climb approximately 17% within a month.
The dynamics among long-term Bitcoin holders also reflect decreasing selling pressure, which enhances the credibility of the current breakout. Analysis of long-term holder metrics indicates that the distribution of coins that have been dormant for over five years has slowed considerably. With the 90-day average of spent outputs from these holders dropping from about 2,300 BTC earlier in the cycle to around 1,000 BTC, it suggests fewer coins are entering the market now. This shift implies that long-term holders may be more inclined to retain their assets rather than sell during this rally.
Additionally, recent data reveals the largest net outflows of Bitcoin from exchanges since December 2024, further underscoring the trend of accumulation versus distribution among holders.
Another significant factor supporting Bitcoin’s bearish case is its historically negative correlation with gold. Instances where this correlation has turned negative have often precedented substantial rallies for Bitcoin, averaging 56% gains over a two-month period, barring exceptional circumstances like the 2021 mining crackdown in China. As of 2026, the macroeconomic environment appears more favorable for Bitcoin, driven by the expansion of global liquidity alongside the anticipated conclusion of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening.
Industry experts, such as Bitwise’s Matt Hougan, suggest that Bitcoin’s upward trends have historically coincided with increased global monetary supply, indicating that the current easing cycle could position Bitcoin favorably against gold as it moves into 2026.
Overall, the combination of technical indicators, reduced selling from long-term holders, and favorable macroeconomic conditions paints a promising picture for Bitcoin’s potential recovery and rally in the coming weeks.