The Buffalo Bills face a critical matchup against the Houston Texans on Thursday evening, with significant implications for the AFC East standings. According to prediction market Kalshi, the Bills currently have a 29 percent chance of overtaking the New England Patriots for the division title this season. This is a notable shift, as the Patriots, boasting a record of 9-2, have emerged as a surprising contender this NFL season, currently ahead of the Bills, who sit at 7-3.
As of Thursday morning, Kalshi assigns a 70 percent probability to the Patriots winning the AFC East. Earlier in the season, the Bills were given a commanding 74 percent chance to secure the division, while the Patriots were considered to have only a 14 percent likelihood. The landscape has changed dramatically in recent weeks, especially after the Patriots defeated the Bills in a tight Week 5 match, using a last-minute field goal to clinch victory.
Historically, the Bills have dominated the division, finishing on top for the last five consecutive years. However, they may lose this streak if they do not regain momentum quickly in the final phase of the regular season. With tiebreakers in play, if both teams end with identical records, New England holds the advantage based on their head-to-head performance. Furthermore, the Patriots are currently undefeated against AFC East opponents this season, while the Bills are 2-2 in division play.
Looking ahead, the Bills’ chances could hinge on their upcoming Week 15 rematch against the Patriots, where a win would level the head-to-head series, leading to a potential shift in tiebreaker scenarios based on performance against division teams. The Bills will also need some help from division rivals, the Jets or Dolphins, who are scheduled to face New England later this season.
In terms of the immediate challenge, the Bills are favored to win against the Texans, with Kalshi estimating a 71 percent probability for a Bills victory. This game may prove pivotal in shaping the remainder of their season and the race for the AFC East crown.
While the odds are not in their favor at the moment, the Bills’ track record and the upcoming games present an opportunity for them to change their fortunes. The excitement of close competition in the AFC East underscores the unpredictable nature of the NFL and leaves fans eager for the unfolding drama of the season.