After four and a half hours of vote counting in the highly anticipated Bihar elections, the main opposition party, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), is facing a challenging situation. Under the leadership of Tejashwi Yadav, who spearheaded the RJD’s campaign for 143 seats, the party is currently leading in only 32 seats. If these results continue to trend this way, it would represent a significant setback for the RJD, which had previously emerged as the single largest party in the 2020 state elections.
This potential outcome would mark the RJD’s second-worst performance in Bihar’s electoral history. The party’s nadir came during the 2010 elections, when it secured just 22 seats. Previous to that, in the 2005 Assembly polls, the RJD won 55 seats while facing fierce anti-incumbency sentiments led by the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) under Nitish Kumar. Rabri Devi, Tejashwi’s mother, was the Chief Minister at the time, and her government was ultimately overtaken by a revitalized Nitish Kumar and his alliance with the BJP.
Fast forward two decades to a transformed political landscape; the BJP and Janata Dal (United) have reunited and appear poised for substantial electoral success. As of 12:30 PM, they are leading in 191 of the 243 Assembly seats. If the trends persist, this could lead to one of the most significant defeats for the RJD, a party founded by Tejashwi’s father and prominent politician Lalu Yadav, who has shepherded RJD to numerous electoral victories since its inception in 1997.
Interestingly, despite the low seat count, the RJD still holds the highest vote share among all participating parties, indicating that while it has secured victories in some constituencies with considerable margins, it has struggled to convert competitive races into wins.
As there are still several rounds of counting to be completed, there remains potential for changes in the outcomes. Nevertheless, the party currently finds itself in a challenging position, while the ruling NDA is again on the cusp of forming the government in Bihar.