BigBear.ai (NYSE:BBAI) is experiencing remarkable stock performance in 2025, recording a significant 74% increase, driven by a growing demand for AI solutions in the defense and security sectors. The company has successfully secured several major contracts and a robust customer base, complemented by a backlog of $384.9 million as reported in the first quarter. This positions BBAI favorably in crucial areas such as border security, defense, intelligence, and critical infrastructure.
The company’s advancements have been highlighted by recent accomplishments, including the launch of its biometric software for Enhanced Passenger Processing (EPP) at major international airports and a strategic partnership in the UAE. Additionally, a collaboration with Analogic, a leader in imaging, detection, and automation solutions, further underscores its authority in the security sector. These operational successes, along with improvements in its balance sheet, are expected to facilitate potential acquisitions that could enhance revenue growth and expedite the path to profitability.
Analyst Scott Buck from H.C. Wainwright expresses strong confidence in BBAI’s trajectory, raising his revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 as a result of this momentum. Buck has increased the company’s valuation multiple from 10.0x to 12.0x, citing that even this is still significantly lower than AI competitor Palantir Technologies, which trades at over 66.0x 2026 revenue estimates. He anticipates accelerated revenue growth, projecting a rise to 7.3% in the second half of 2025 and reaching double-digit growth at 13.6% in 2026. This could lead to consistent profitability as early as the following year, with an expected adjusted EBITDA of $4.5 million.
Following these developments, Buck has raised his price target for BBAI from $6 to $9, indicating a potential 16% gain in the near future, maintaining a Buy rating. While Buck stands out as a leading advocate for BBAI, the stock also holds a Moderate Buy consensus rating among analysts, though the average price target suggests a potential discount in the stock’s value over the next year.
The evolving defense and security landscape continues to present a promising future for BigBear.ai, with AI’s integration likely to sustain its growth in the marketplace. Investors may find optimism in the company’s strategic initiatives and industry positioning, indicating a potential for further success ahead.